PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:MLB was right to delay Astros pitcher Bryan Abreu’s suspension – but the process stinks

HOUSTON – Did Bryan Abreu intentionally hit Adolis Garcia with a pitch in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series?PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center

Probably not.

 But maybe he did.

And it’s awfully hard to judge intent in the heat of any moment – let alone the highest-stakes game of the year.

So Major League Baseball did the best possible thing it could do in this modern era of policing perceived vigilante justice, where umpires are empowered to eject first, ask questions later – and the league is hellbent on enforcing mandatory minimums.

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They upheld Abreu’s two-game suspension for hitting Garcia – but booted it to the first two games of the 2024 season.

So Abreu is good to go for Monday night’s ALCS Game 7 against Garcia’s Rangers. And needn’t worry about the big bad suspension man coming for him during the World Series, should the Astros advance.

That’s good. But l’affair Abreu also exposed some weak points in MLB’s on-field discipline model – especially as it pertains to the postseason.

First off, it’s good that the system allows for expedited rulings – within 48 hours, per the collective bargaining agreement. No need for matters to hang over anyone’s head, like Chase Utley’s takeout slide in the 2015 NL Division Series that broke Ruben Tejada’s leg.

And it makes sense that MLB would have its umpires backs – the six-ump crew on this ALCS was put in a split-second spot of determining intent, rendering deicsions that would make nobody happy.

They eventually ejected Abreu, Garcia and Astros manager Dusty Baker – and Rangers manager Bruce Bochy was still mad, simply because it took so long and his own reliever was left to wait it all out.

But there needs to be a little more wiggle room between what the umps decide and the punishment the league levies.

Did Abreu hit Garcia on purpose? Nobody knows!

Would anyone have noticed had Garcia not lost his head, got directly in the face of catcher Martin Maldonado, and the benches cleared? Probably not!

Funny thing is, future Garcias may take a shot at losing their cool even if they believe in their heart of hearts they weren’t plunked intentionally. Flip your lid – maybe you’ll take down the opposition’s best relief pitcher.

It’s kind of like the NBA before they implemented flopping violations.

It’s clear that since Abreu will, in fact, serve his two-game suspension that MLB was bent on upholding the ban – to maintain precedent, to deter future headhunting, all that.

Yet that thirst to police the game should not get in the way of pragmatism. And in the heat of this 72-hour cycle, there should be a space to say, “You know what? We really, truly don’t know Abreu’s intent. The man denied it.

“And getting ejected from the most pivotal game of a seven-game series was probably punishment enough. We thank the umpires for taking the time to arrive at what they believed to be the right decision.

“Play ball.”

That, Abreu will do. But splitting the baby – and casting a three-day pall over this epic ALCS – was just so unnecessary.